Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 12, 2016
Atlético 3–0 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Deportivo 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2.05 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 0.44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Atlético about even · −8 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 9, 1 ends level, Deportivo win 0.
- 1 ATM 1 DEP 0
- 2 ATM 1 DEP 0
- 3 ATM 3 DEP 1
- 4 ATM 2 DEP 0
- 5 ATM 2 DEP 0
- 6 ATM 3 DEP 0
- 7 ATM 3 DEP 0
- 8 ATM 4 DEP 0
- 9 ATM 5 DEP 0
- 10 ATM 1 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 87%, 11% end level, Deportivo win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 41.7% |
| Atlético by 2 | 24.2% |
| Atlético by 1 | 20.7% |
| Draw | 10.7% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 2.5% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 0.3% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 16 | 3 | 2.05 | +0.95 |
 Deportivo | 6 | 0 | 0.44 | −0.44 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 17' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 43' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 59' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 82' | Ángel Martín Correa scored from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +9% DEP |
| 2 | 17' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +22% ATM |
| 3 | 22' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% DEP |
| 4 | 28' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATM |
| 5 | 43' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +5% DEP |
| 6 | 59' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +9% ATM |
| 7 | 62' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% ATM |
| 8 | 62' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +3% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 95% · draw 5% · Deportivo 1%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 87% · draw 11% · Deportivo 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws