Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 12, 2016
Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Real Sociedad 1–0, but the replays lean toward Real Sociedad: 4 wins in 10 to Celta’s 2, 4 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.40 |
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Celta lucky · −55 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 2, 4 end level, Real Sociedad win 4.
- 1 CEL 1 RSO 0
- 2 CEL 1 RSO 0
- 3 CEL 1 RSO 1
- 4 CEL 0 RSO 0
- 5 CEL 0 RSO 0
- 6 CEL 0 RSO 0
- 7 CEL 0 RSO 2
- 8 CEL 0 RSO 1
- 9 CEL 1 RSO 2
- 10 CEL 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 23%, 43% end level, Real Sociedad win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Celta by 2 | 4.0% |
| Celta by 1 | 18.4% |
| Draw | 43.1% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 24.0% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 7.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 7 | 1 | 0.40 | +0.60 |
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 0 | 0.75 | −0.75 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +21% CEL |
| 2 | 65' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% CEL |
| 3 | 66' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 69' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% CEL |
| 5 | 81' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 6 | 82' | Diego Antonio Reyes Rosales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% CEL |
| 7 | 85' | Asier Illarramendi Andonegi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% CEL |
| 8 | 93' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 21% · draw 39% · Real Sociedad 40%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 23% · draw 43% · Real Sociedad 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws