Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 13, 2016
Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Villarreal 4–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sevilla win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 3.9 expected goals to 1.3. An own goal helped Sevilla.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 4 | 3.90 |
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Sevilla about even · −9 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 9, 1 ends level, Villarreal win 0.
- 1 SEV 3 VIL 2
- 2 SEV 3 VIL 1
- 3 SEV 4 VIL 2
- 4 SEV 5 VIL 2
- 5 SEV 6 VIL 3
- 6 SEV 4 VIL 0
- 7 SEV 5 VIL 0
- 8 SEV 6 VIL 0
- 9 SEV 7 VIL 0
- 10 SEV 3 VIL 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 87%, 8% end level, Villarreal win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 57.2% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 16.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 13.6% |
| Draw | 7.5% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 3.5% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 1.5% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 14 | 3 | 3.90 | −0.90 |
 Villarreal | 13 | 2 | 1.34 | +0.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shot | 0.70 |
| 28' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 33' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 35' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 36' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 64' | Yevhen Konoplyanka scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 66' | Michael Krohn-Dehli didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 83' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 90' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 90' | José Antonio Reyes Calderón scored from a shot | 0.83 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shotFinishing · 70% chance | +7% SEV |
| 2 | 28' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +22% VIL |
| 3 | 33' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +10% VIL |
| 4 | 35' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +11% VIL |
| 5 | 36' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +28% VIL |
| 6 | 50' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for SevillaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +32% SEV |
| 7 | 64' | Yevhen Konoplyanka scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +34% SEV |
| 8 | 83' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +17% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 88% · draw 8% · Villarreal 4%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 87% · draw 8% · Villarreal 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws