Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 13, 2016
Levante 1–0 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Valencia 1–0, and the replays lean Levante’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Valencia, 3 end level. Levante made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Levante lucky · −42 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 4, 3 end level, Valencia win 3.
- 1 LEV 1 VAL 0
- 2 LEV 2 VAL 1
- 3 LEV 2 VAL 0
- 4 LEV 2 VAL 0
- 5 LEV 0 VAL 0
- 6 LEV 0 VAL 0
- 7 LEV 1 VAL 1
- 8 LEV 1 VAL 3
- 9 LEV 1 VAL 2
- 10 LEV 0 VAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 42%, 33% end level, Valencia win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 5.1% |
| Levante by 2 | 11.2% |
| Levante by 1 | 25.5% |
| Draw | 32.8% |
| Valencia by 1 | 18.3% |
| Valencia by 2 | 5.3% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 14 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
 Valencia | 6 | 0 | 0.73 | −0.73 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 63' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +11% LEV |
| 2 | 20' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% VAL |
| 3 | 24' | Sofiane Feghouli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LEV |
| 4 | 43' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% VAL |
| 5 | 49' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% VAL |
| 6 | 63' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +34% LEV |
| 7 | 83' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LEV |
| 8 | 86' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 42% · draw 32% · Valencia 25%
- Final margin
- Levante by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 42% · draw 33% · Valencia 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws