Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 13, 2016
Athletic 3–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Betis 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 3 | 2.15 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Athletic about even · −11 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 8, 1 ends level, Betis win 1.
- 1 ATH 1 BET 0
- 2 ATH 1 BET 0
- 3 ATH 3 BET 1
- 4 ATH 2 BET 0
- 5 ATH 3 BET 0
- 6 ATH 3 BET 0
- 7 ATH 4 BET 0
- 8 ATH 7 BET 1
- 9 ATH 0 BET 0
- 10 ATH 1 BET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 83%, 12% end level, Betis win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 40.4% |
| Athletic by 2 | 23.4% |
| Athletic by 1 | 19.1% |
| Draw | 11.8% |
| Betis by 1 | 4.1% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.9% |
| Betis by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 19 | 3 | 2.15 | +0.85 |
 Betis | 3 | 1 | 0.75 | +0.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 43' | Mikel Rico Moreno scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 49' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shot | 0.81 |
| 84' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BET |
| 2 | 16' | Iker Muniain Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BET |
| 3 | 16' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% BET |
| 4 | 23' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BET |
| 5 | 24' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% ATH |
| 6 | 27' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BET |
| 7 | 33' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +20% ATH |
| 8 | 43' | Mikel Rico Moreno scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 91% · draw 7% · Betis 2%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 83% · draw 12% · Betis 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws