Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 12, 2016
Barcelona 6–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Getafe 6–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 10 of 10. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.3. An own goal helped Barcelona.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Barcelona about even · −2 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 10, 0 end level, Getafe win 0.
- 1 BAR 2 GET 1
- 2 BAR 2 GET 0
- 3 BAR 3 GET 0
- 4 BAR 3 GET 0
- 5 BAR 4 GET 0
- 6 BAR 5 GET 1
- 7 BAR 5 GET 0
- 8 BAR 5 GET 0
- 9 BAR 7 GET 1
- 10 BAR 8 GET 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 96%, 3% end level, Getafe win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 6.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 74.2% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 14.6% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 7.6% |
| Draw | 3.1% |
| Getafe by 1 | 0.4% |
| Getafe by 2 | 0.1% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 15 (1 pen) | 5 | 2.93 | +2.07 |
 Getafe | 6 | 0 | 0.26 | −0.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 18' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 30' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 31' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 39' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 50' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 56' | Arda Turan scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Own goal by Gerard Piqué Bernabéu, for BarcelonaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +21% BAR |
| 2 | 10' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% GET |
| 3 | 16' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +1% GET |
| 4 | 18' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +7% BAR |
| 5 | 26' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% GET |
| 6 | 30' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +1% GET |
| 7 | 31' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% BAR |
| 8 | 39' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 100% · draw 0% · Getafe 0%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 6
- Luck in goals
- 2.7 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 96% · draw 3% · Getafe 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws