Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 1, 2016
Rayo 2–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Getafe 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Rayo win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 3.06 |
 Getafe | 0 | 1.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Rayo about even · −12 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 8, 1 ends level, Getafe win 1.
- 1 RAY 2 GET 1
- 2 RAY 3 GET 1
- 3 RAY 3 GET 1
- 4 RAY 4 GET 1
- 5 RAY 4 GET 1
- 6 RAY 6 GET 2
- 7 RAY 5 GET 0
- 8 RAY 6 GET 0
- 9 RAY 1 GET 1
- 10 RAY 4 GET 5
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 82%, 11% end level, Getafe win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 46.9% |
| Rayo by 2 | 19.3% |
| Rayo by 1 | 16.2% |
| Draw | 10.9% |
| Getafe by 1 | 4.7% |
| Getafe by 2 | 1.6% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 15 | 2 | 3.06 | −1.06 |
 Getafe | 15 | 0 | 1.23 | −1.23 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
| 14' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.87 |
| 37' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
| 38' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 70' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Álvaro Medrán Just didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% RAY |
| 2 | 14' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chanceJavier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 87% chance | +9% GET |
| 3 | 32' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% RAY |
| 4 | 37' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +6% GET |
| 5 | 38' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +5% GET |
| 6 | 51' | Juan Antonio Rodríguez Villamuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RAY |
| 7 | 69' | Joaquín José Marín Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +2% GET |
| 8 | 70' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 92% · draw 6% · Getafe 2%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 82% · draw 11% · Getafe 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 5–1 Betis Apr 2, 2016 · replay 99% for Atlético
- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–2 Villarreal Apr 3, 2016 · replay 84% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws