Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 4, 2016
Levante 0–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Levante and Sporting drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Levante win 5 of 10, Sporting 2, and 3 end level. Levante made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 0 | 1.39 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 1.03 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −9 Levante about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 5, 3 end level, Sporting win 2.
- 1 LEV 1 SPO 0
- 2 LEV 1 SPO 0
- 3 LEV 1 SPO 0
- 4 LEV 2 SPO 0
- 5 LEV 3 SPO 0
- 6 LEV 1 SPO 1
- 7 LEV 1 SPO 1
- 8 LEV 1 SPO 1
- 9 LEV 0 SPO 2
- 10 LEV 0 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 46%, 26% end level, Sporting win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 9.0% |
| Levante by 2 | 13.3% |
| Levante by 1 | 23.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Sporting by 1 | 17.3% |
| Sporting by 2 | 7.8% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 17 | 0 | 1.39 | −1.39 |
 Sporting | 11 | 0 | 1.03 | −1.03 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% SPO |
| 2 | 7' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% LEV |
| 3 | 14' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% SPO |
| 4 | 30' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% LEV |
| 5 | 38' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% LEV |
| 6 | 51' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% SPO |
| 7 | 63' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% SPO |
| 8 | 77' | Víctor Casadesús Castaño didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 44% · draw 29% · Sporting 27%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 46% · draw 26% · Sporting 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Levante · Sporting
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- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
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