Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Celta 1–1 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Celta and Deportivo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Celta win 1 of 10, Deportivo 6, and 3 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.37 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 1.21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Celta about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 1, 3 end level, Deportivo win 6.
- 1 CEL 1 DEP 0
- 2 CEL 0 DEP 0
- 3 CEL 1 DEP 1
- 4 CEL 0 DEP 0
- 5 CEL 1 DEP 4
- 6 CEL 0 DEP 2
- 7 CEL 0 DEP 1
- 8 CEL 0 DEP 1
- 9 CEL 1 DEP 2
- 10 CEL 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 12%, 31% end level, Deportivo win 58%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Celta by 2 | 1.9% |
| Celta by 1 | 9.7% |
| Draw | 30.6% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 30.8% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 15.7% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 11.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 9 | 1 | 0.37 | +0.63 |
 Deportivo | 7 | 1 | 1.21 | −0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Celso Borges Mora scored from a shot | 0.76 |
| 29' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CEL |
| 2 | 18' | Sidnei Rechel da Silva Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% CEL |
| 3 | 20' | Celso Borges Mora scored from a shotFinishing · 75% chance | +7% DEP |
| 4 | 29' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +27% CEL |
| 5 | 65' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CEL |
| 6 | 69' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +3% DEP |
| 7 | 82' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% DEP |
| 8 | 92' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 9% · draw 27% · Deportivo 64%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 12% · draw 31% · Deportivo 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Atlético 5–1 Betis Apr 2, 2016 · replay 99% for Atlético
- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–2 Villarreal Apr 3, 2016 · replay 84% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws