Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 3, 2016
Málaga 1–1 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Málaga and Espanyol drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Málaga win 6 of 10, Espanyol 1, and 3 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −23 Málaga about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 6, 3 end level, Espanyol win 1.
- 1 MAL 2 ESP 1
- 2 MAL 1 ESP 0
- 3 MAL 1 ESP 0
- 4 MAL 2 ESP 0
- 5 MAL 2 ESP 0
- 6 MAL 3 ESP 0
- 7 MAL 1 ESP 1
- 8 MAL 1 ESP 1
- 9 MAL 1 ESP 1
- 10 MAL 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 57%, 31% end level, Espanyol win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 8.8% |
| Málaga by 2 | 17.3% |
| Málaga by 1 | 31.0% |
| Draw | 30.8% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 10.2% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 1.6% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 11 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.31 | −0.31 |
 Espanyol | 6 | 1 | 0.28 | +0.72 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Papa Kouly Diop scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 44' | Duje Čop scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Papa Kouly Diop scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +24% ESP |
| 2 | 18' | Rubén Duarte Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% MAL |
| 3 | 28' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 31' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ESP |
| 5 | 44' | Duje Čop scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% MAL |
| 6 | 81' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% MAL |
| 7 | 86' | Pablo Fornals Malla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ESP |
| 8 | 87' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 72% · draw 22% · Espanyol 5%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 57% · draw 31% · Espanyol 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 5–1 Betis Apr 2, 2016 · replay 99% for Atlético
- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–2 Villarreal Apr 3, 2016 · replay 84% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws