Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Barcelona 2–1, and the replays lean Real Madrid’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Barcelona, 3 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 1 | 0.73 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 1.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Real Madrid lucky · −36 Barcelona
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 2, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 5.
- 1 BAR 1 RMA 0
- 2 BAR 3 RMA 1
- 3 BAR 0 RMA 0
- 4 BAR 0 RMA 0
- 5 BAR 2 RMA 2
- 6 BAR 0 RMA 3
- 7 BAR 0 RMA 2
- 8 BAR 1 RMA 2
- 9 BAR 0 RMA 1
- 10 BAR 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 22%, 27% end level, Real Madrid win 50%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 1.5% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 5.4% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 15.4% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 26.4% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 15.3% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 8.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 14 | 1 | 0.72 | +0.28 |
 Real Madrid | 15 | 2 | 1.32 | +0.68 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 55' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 61' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 84' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% BAR |
| 2 | 51' | Luka Modrić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chanceGareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% BAR |
| 3 | 55' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +29% BAR |
| 4 | 61' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +22% RMA |
| 5 | 67' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BAR |
| 6 | 81' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% BAR |
| 7 | 84' | The game turned hereCristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +43% RMA |
| 8 | 91' | Arda Turan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 20% · draw 27% · Real Madrid 53%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 22% · draw 27% · Real Madrid 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 5–1 Betis Apr 2, 2016 · replay 99% for Atlético
- Eibar 1–2 Villarreal Apr 3, 2016 · replay 84% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws