Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 3, 2016
Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Sevilla 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Sevilla win 7 of 10, Real Sociedad only 1, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.3. An own goal helped Real Sociedad.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 1 | 2.15 |
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 0.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +80 Real Sociedad very lucky · −80 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 7, 2 end level, Real Sociedad win 1.
- 1 SEV 1 RSO 0
- 2 SEV 1 RSO 0
- 3 SEV 1 RSO 0
- 4 SEV 2 RSO 0
- 5 SEV 2 RSO 0
- 6 SEV 3 RSO 0
- 7 SEV 4 RSO 0
- 8 SEV 0 RSO 0
- 9 SEV 0 RSO 0
- 10 SEV 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 69%, 23% end level, Real Sociedad win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 18.7% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 21.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 29.3% |
| Draw | 22.6% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 6.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 1.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 15 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.15 | −1.15 |
 Real Sociedad | 8 | 1 | 0.31 | +0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Markel Bergara Larrañaga scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 32' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 50' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 70' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | The game turned hereMarkel Bergara Larrañaga scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +23% RSO |
| 2 | 32' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% RSO |
| 3 | 33' | Own goal by nan, for Real SociedadOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +17% RSO |
| 4 | 50' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% SEV |
| 5 | 64' | José Antonio Reyes Calderón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% RSO |
| 6 | 70' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +14% RSO |
| 7 | 80' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RSO |
| 8 | 83' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 87% · draw 11% · Real Sociedad 2%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 69% · draw 23% · Real Sociedad 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 20% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 5–1 Betis Apr 2, 2016 · replay 99% for Atlético
- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–2 Villarreal Apr 3, 2016 · replay 84% for Villarreal
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws