Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 3, 2016
Eibar 1–2 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Eibar 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 0.63 |
 Villarreal | 2 | 2.41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Villarreal about even · −16 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 1, 2 end level, Villarreal win 7.
- 1 EIB 2 VIL 1
- 2 EIB 2 VIL 2
- 3 EIB 1 VIL 1
- 4 EIB 0 VIL 5
- 5 EIB 0 VIL 3
- 6 EIB 0 VIL 3
- 7 EIB 1 VIL 3
- 8 EIB 0 VIL 2
- 9 EIB 0 VIL 1
- 10 EIB 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 8%, 16% end level, Villarreal win 76%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Eibar by 2 | 1.5% |
| Eibar by 1 | 5.9% |
| Draw | 16.1% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 22.7% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 23.0% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 30.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 12 | 1 | 0.64 | +0.36 |
 Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2.41 | −0.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Ander Capa Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 34' | Adrián López Álvarez scored from a shot | 0.97 |
| 49' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% VIL |
| 2 | 21' | Ander Capa Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +23% EIB |
| 3 | 34' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% EIB |
| 4 | 40' | Tomás Pina Isla didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% EIB |
| 5 | 48' | Adrián López Álvarez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% EIB |
| 6 | 49' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +20% VIL |
| 7 | 57' | Samuel Castillejo Azuaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% EIB |
| 8 | 91' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 4% · draw 11% · Villarreal 85%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 8% · draw 16% · Villarreal 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Villarreal
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 5–1 Betis Apr 2, 2016 · replay 99% for Atlético
- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws