Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 3, 2016
Athletic 1–1 Granada: who deserved to win?
Athletic and Granada drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Athletic win 7 of 10, Granada 1, and 2 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 1 | 1.73 |
 Granada | 1 | 0.57 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −31 Athletic unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 7, 2 end level, Granada win 1.
- 1 ATH 2 GRA 1
- 2 ATH 1 GRA 0
- 3 ATH 2 GRA 1
- 4 ATH 3 GRA 1
- 5 ATH 3 GRA 1
- 6 ATH 4 GRA 1
- 7 ATH 4 GRA 0
- 8 ATH 0 GRA 0
- 9 ATH 3 GRA 3
- 10 ATH 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 72%, 19% end level, Granada win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 23.6% |
| Athletic by 2 | 22.1% |
| Athletic by 1 | 26.1% |
| Draw | 18.8% |
| Granada by 1 | 7.1% |
| Granada by 2 | 1.9% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 8 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.73 | −0.73 |
 Granada | 9 | 1 | 0.57 | +0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Íñigo Lekue Martínez scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 44' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 76' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 82' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ATH |
| 2 | 27' | Íñigo Lekue Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +22% ATH |
| 3 | 30' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% GRA |
| 4 | 44' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +9% GRA |
| 5 | 66' | Robert Ibáñez Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATH |
| 6 | 76' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +37% GRA |
| 7 | 82' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +14% GRA |
| 8 | 91' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +7% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 71% · draw 20% · Granada 9%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 72% · draw 19% · Granada 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Athletic · Granada
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
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- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
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- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
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