Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Atlético 5–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Betis 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 10 of 10. Atlético made the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 5 | 4.04 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 0.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Atlético about even · −1 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 10, 0 end level, Betis win 0.
- 1 ATM 3 BET 1
- 2 ATM 3 BET 0
- 3 ATM 5 BET 2
- 4 ATM 5 BET 1
- 5 ATM 6 BET 1
- 6 ATM 5 BET 0
- 7 ATM 6 BET 0
- 8 ATM 8 BET 1
- 9 ATM 9 BET 1
- 10 ATM 9 BET 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 98%, 2% end level, Betis win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 85.8% |
| Atlético by 2 | 8.2% |
| Atlético by 1 | 3.8% |
| Draw | 1.7% |
| Betis by 1 | 0.4% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.1% |
| Betis by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 17 | 5 | 4.04 | +0.96 |
 Betis | 8 | 1 | 0.80 | +0.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 36' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 41' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 54' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 64' | Juan Francisco Torres Belén scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 78' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 80' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.78 |
| 90' | Thomas Teye Partey scored from a shot | 0.76 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% BET |
| 2 | 17' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% BET |
| 3 | 36' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +18% ATM |
| 4 | 41' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +11% ATM |
| 5 | 47' | Heiko Westermann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% ATM |
| 6 | 47' | Heiko Westermann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% ATM |
| 7 | 54' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +1% BET |
| 8 | 64' | Juan Francisco Torres Belén scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +1% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 99% · draw 1% · Betis 0%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 98% · draw 2% · Betis 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 99% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia Apr 2, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–2 Villarreal Apr 3, 2016 · replay 84% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws