Matchday 31 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 2, 2016
Las Palmas 2–1 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Valencia 2–1, and the replays lean Las Palmas’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Valencia, 2 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.2. An own goal helped Las Palmas.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 2 | 1.97 |
 Valencia | 1 | 1.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Las Palmas lucky · −35 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 5, 2 end level, Valencia win 3.
- 1 LPA 2 VAL 1
- 2 LPA 1 VAL 0
- 3 LPA 3 VAL 1
- 4 LPA 3 VAL 0
- 5 LPA 4 VAL 0
- 6 LPA 0 VAL 0
- 7 LPA 0 VAL 0
- 8 LPA 1 VAL 3
- 9 LPA 1 VAL 2
- 10 LPA 1 VAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 55%, 22% end level, Valencia win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 16.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 16.8% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 21.6% |
| Draw | 21.6% |
| Valencia by 1 | 13.8% |
| Valencia by 2 | 7.0% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.97 | −0.97 |
 Valencia | 8 | 1 | 1.16 | −0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado scored from a shot | 0.90 |
| 49' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 75' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado scored from a shotFinishing · 90% chance | +2% VAL |
| 2 | 6' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% VAL |
| 3 | 49' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% LPA |
| 4 | 57' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% VAL |
| 5 | 59' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +7% VAL |
| 6 | 59' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% VAL |
| 7 | 63' | Own goal by nan, for Las PalmasOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +33% LPA |
| 8 | 75' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +3% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 60% · draw 28% · Valencia 12%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 55% · draw 22% · Valencia 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Valencia
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Rayo 2–0 Getafe Apr 1, 2016 · replay 88% for Rayo
- Celta 1–1 Deportivo Apr 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Atlético 5–1 Betis Apr 2, 2016 · replay 99% for Atlético
- Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid Apr 2, 2016 · replay 64% for Real Madrid
- Eibar 1–2 Villarreal Apr 3, 2016 · replay 84% for Villarreal
- Sevilla 1–2 Real Sociedad Apr 3, 2016 · replay 20% for Real Sociedad
- Málaga 1–1 Espanyol Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Athletic 1–1 Granada Apr 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Levante 0–0 Sporting Apr 4, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws