Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Celta 1–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Celta and Betis drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Celta win 5 of 10, Betis 3, and 2 end level. Celta made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 2.09 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −8 Celta about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 5, 2 end level, Betis win 3.
- 1 CEL 3 BET 2
- 2 CEL 3 BET 2
- 3 CEL 4 BET 2
- 4 CEL 4 BET 2
- 5 CEL 4 BET 1
- 6 CEL 1 BET 1
- 7 CEL 0 BET 0
- 8 CEL 1 BET 3
- 9 CEL 1 BET 2
- 10 CEL 1 BET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 47%, 23% end level, Betis win 30%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 12.3% |
| Celta by 2 | 13.0% |
| Celta by 1 | 21.6% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Betis by 1 | 17.2% |
| Betis by 2 | 8.4% |
| Betis by 3+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 18 | 1 | 2.09 | −1.09 |
 Betis | 10 | 1 | 1.37 | −0.37 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye scored from a shot | 0.91 |
| 33' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 77' | Pedro Pablo Hernández scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +5% BET |
| 2 | 33' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +16% BET |
| 3 | 47' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +4% CEL |
| 4 | 60' | Nemanja Radoja didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% BET |
| 5 | 77' | Pedro Pablo Hernández scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +38% CEL |
| 6 | 82' | Jonathan Castro Otto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BET |
| 7 | 82' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BET |
| 8 | 86' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +14% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 54% · draw 26% · Betis 20%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 47% · draw 23% · Betis 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia