Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Barcelona 1–2 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Barcelona 2–1, but the replays lean toward Barcelona: 6 wins in 10 to Valencia’s 2, 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.7. An own goal helped Valencia.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Valencia very lucky · −74 Barcelona
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 6, 2 end level, Valencia win 2.
- 1 BAR 2 VAL 1
- 2 BAR 2 VAL 1
- 3 BAR 2 VAL 0
- 4 BAR 3 VAL 1
- 5 BAR 4 VAL 1
- 6 BAR 5 VAL 1
- 7 BAR 1 VAL 1
- 8 BAR 2 VAL 2
- 9 BAR 0 VAL 2
- 10 BAR 2 VAL 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 64%, 21% end level, Valencia win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 20.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 20.0% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 23.6% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| Valencia by 1 | 10.2% |
| Valencia by 2 | 3.8% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 22 | 1 | 2.26 | −1.26 |
 Valencia | 7 | 1 | 0.68 | +0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 45' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 62' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +5% VAL |
| 2 | 21' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +8% VAL |
| 3 | 25' | The game turned hereOwn goal by Guilherme Magdalena Siqueira, for ValenciaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% VAL |
| 4 | 38' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% VAL |
| 5 | 45' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +15% VAL |
| 6 | 62' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +12% BAR |
| 7 | 74' | Ivan Rakitić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% VAL |
| 8 | 88' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +9% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 74% · draw 17% · Valencia 9%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 64% · draw 21% · Valencia 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 26% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws