Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Real Sociedad 2–1, and the replays lean Eibar’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Real Sociedad, 3 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 2 | 1.18 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Eibar lucky · −33 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 5, 3 end level, Real Sociedad win 2.
- 1 EIB 1 RSO 0
- 2 EIB 1 RSO 0
- 3 EIB 2 RSO 0
- 4 EIB 3 RSO 1
- 5 EIB 3 RSO 0
- 6 EIB 0 RSO 0
- 7 EIB 0 RSO 0
- 8 EIB 0 RSO 0
- 9 EIB 0 RSO 2
- 10 EIB 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 53%, 28% end level, Real Sociedad win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 9.9% |
| Eibar by 2 | 16.1% |
| Eibar by 1 | 27.5% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 13.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 4.0% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 8 | 2 | 1.18 | +0.82 |
 Real Sociedad | 7 | 1 | 0.62 | +0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | David Zurutuza Veillet scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 31' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 57' | Gonzalo Escalante scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 82' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | David Zurutuza Veillet scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +24% RSO |
| 2 | 25' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% EIB |
| 3 | 31' | The game turned hereSergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +27% EIB |
| 4 | 48' | Markel Bergara Larrañaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% EIB |
| 5 | 57' | Gonzalo Escalante scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +23% EIB |
| 6 | 69' | Markel Bergara Larrañaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% EIB |
| 7 | 82' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +2% RSO |
| 8 | 89' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +4% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 52% · draw 30% · Real Sociedad 18%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 53% · draw 28% · Real Sociedad 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia