Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas and Sporting drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Las Palmas win 2 of 10, Sporting 5, and 3 end level. Sporting made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 1 | 0.44 |
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 1.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Las Palmas about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 2, 3 end level, Sporting win 5.
- 1 LPA 1 SPO 0
- 2 LPA 1 SPO 0
- 3 LPA 0 SPO 0
- 4 LPA 0 SPO 0
- 5 LPA 0 SPO 0
- 6 LPA 0 SPO 3
- 7 LPA 1 SPO 3
- 8 LPA 0 SPO 1
- 9 LPA 0 SPO 1
- 10 LPA 0 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 16%, 31% end level, Sporting win 52%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.6% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 2.6% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 13.1% |
| Draw | 31.5% |
| Sporting by 1 | 29.4% |
| Sporting by 2 | 15.1% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 7.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 10 | 1 | 0.44 | +0.56 |
 Sporting | 12 | 1 | 1.22 | −0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Pedro Bigas Rigo scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 47' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 51' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Pedro Bigas Rigo scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +20% LPA |
| 2 | 6' | Luis Hernández Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LPA |
| 3 | 8' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LPA |
| 4 | 17' | Jorge Meré Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% LPA |
| 5 | 40' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LPA |
| 6 | 47' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +24% SPO |
| 7 | 51' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +15% LPA |
| 8 | 77' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 13% · draw 29% · Sporting 59%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 16% · draw 31% · Sporting 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 33 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Sporting
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
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