Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Rayo 2–1 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Villarreal 2–1, and the replays lean Rayo’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Villarreal, 3 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.17 |
 Villarreal | 1 | 0.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Rayo lucky · −32 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 5, 3 end level, Villarreal win 2.
- 1 RAY 1 VIL 0
- 2 RAY 1 VIL 0
- 3 RAY 4 VIL 2
- 4 RAY 2 VIL 0
- 5 RAY 4 VIL 1
- 6 RAY 0 VIL 0
- 7 RAY 0 VIL 0
- 8 RAY 0 VIL 0
- 9 RAY 1 VIL 3
- 10 RAY 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 53%, 30% end level, Villarreal win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 8.3% |
| Rayo by 2 | 16.6% |
| Rayo by 1 | 28.3% |
| Draw | 30.3% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 12.3% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 3.5% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 14 | 2 | 1.17 | +0.83 |
 Villarreal | 7 | 1 | 0.58 | +0.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 19' | Adrián López Álvarez scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 80' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +11% RAY |
| 2 | 18' | Eric Bertrand Bailly didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% RAY |
| 3 | 19' | Adrián López Álvarez scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +19% VIL |
| 4 | 25' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% VIL |
| 5 | 30' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% VIL |
| 6 | 66' | Manuel Trigueros Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% RAY |
| 7 | 69' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% VIL |
| 8 | 80' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +42% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 54% · draw 29% · Villarreal 17%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 53% · draw 30% · Villarreal 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia