Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Sevilla and Deportivo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sevilla win 7 of 10, Deportivo 1, and 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.74 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −30 Sevilla unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 7, 2 end level, Deportivo win 1.
- 1 SEV 1 DEP 0
- 2 SEV 2 DEP 1
- 3 SEV 1 DEP 0
- 4 SEV 4 DEP 2
- 5 SEV 3 DEP 1
- 6 SEV 4 DEP 1
- 7 SEV 5 DEP 1
- 8 SEV 1 DEP 1
- 9 SEV 0 DEP 0
- 10 SEV 2 DEP 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 70%, 19% end level, Deportivo win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 21.3% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 21.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 27.3% |
| Draw | 19.5% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 7.9% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 2.3% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 12 | 1 | 1.74 | −0.74 |
 Deportivo | 5 | 1 | 0.66 | +0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 20' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 80' | Oriol Riera Magem scored from a shot | 0.46 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% DEP |
| 2 | 17' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% DEP |
| 3 | 19' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% DEP |
| 4 | 20' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +14% SEV |
| 5 | 23' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +3% DEP |
| 6 | 68' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SEV |
| 7 | 80' | Oriol Riera Magem scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +24% DEP |
| 8 | 85' | Daniel Filipe Martins Carriço didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +9% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 66% · draw 23% · Deportivo 11%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 70% · draw 19% · Deportivo 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia