Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 15, 2016
Levante 2–1 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Espanyol 2–1, but the replays lean toward Espanyol: 4 wins in 10 to Levante’s 3, 3 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +59 Levante lucky · −59 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 3, 3 end level, Espanyol win 4.
- 1 LEV 2 ESP 1
- 2 LEV 1 ESP 0
- 3 LEV 2 ESP 0
- 4 LEV 0 ESP 0
- 5 LEV 1 ESP 1
- 6 LEV 1 ESP 1
- 7 LEV 0 ESP 3
- 8 LEV 1 ESP 3
- 9 LEV 0 ESP 1
- 10 LEV 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 26%, 31% end level, Espanyol win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Levante by 2 | 5.9% |
| Levante by 1 | 17.7% |
| Draw | 30.8% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 24.7% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 13.1% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 5.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 12 | 2 | 0.83 | +1.17 |
 Espanyol | 10 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 22' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 59' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 65' | Carl Medjani scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +12% ESP |
| 2 | 22' | The game turned hereGiuseppe Rossi scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +27% LEV |
| 3 | 28' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% ESP |
| 4 | 28' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% ESP |
| 5 | 54' | Álvaro González Soberón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LEV |
| 6 | 59' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +12% LEV |
| 7 | 65' | Carl Medjani scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +29% LEV |
| 8 | 74' | Jorge Franco Alviz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 25% · draw 30% · Espanyol 45%
- Final margin
- Levante by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 26% · draw 31% · Espanyol 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 41% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia