Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Málaga 0–1 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Málaga 1–0, but the replays lean toward Málaga: 6 wins in 10 to Athletic’s 2, 2 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 0 | 2.00 |
 Athletic Club | 1 | 0.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Athletic very lucky · −67 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 6, 2 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 MAL 1 ATH 0
- 2 MAL 2 ATH 1
- 3 MAL 2 ATH 1
- 4 MAL 3 ATH 1
- 5 MAL 5 ATH 2
- 6 MAL 4 ATH 0
- 7 MAL 2 ATH 2
- 8 MAL 1 ATH 1
- 9 MAL 1 ATH 3
- 10 MAL 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 56%, 22% end level, Athletic win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 15.7% |
| Málaga by 2 | 16.4% |
| Málaga by 1 | 23.7% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| Athletic by 1 | 14.0% |
| Athletic by 2 | 5.5% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 18 | 0 | 2.00 | −2.00 |
 Athletic | 6 | 1 | 0.88 | +0.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 52' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 54' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 89' | Borja Viguera Manzanares didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +7% ATH |
| 2 | 24' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% ATH |
| 3 | 52' | The game turned hereRaúl García Escudero scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +28% ATH |
| 4 | 54' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +13% ATH |
| 5 | 64' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% ATH |
| 6 | 67' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% ATH |
| 7 | 77' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +7% ATH |
| 8 | 77' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 64% · draw 21% · Athletic 15%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 56% · draw 22% · Athletic 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 33% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia