Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Getafe 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 10 of 10. Real Madrid made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 1 | 0.70 |
 Real Madrid | 5 | 3.12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Real Madrid about even · −4 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 0, 0 end level, Real Madrid win 10.
- 1 GET 0 RMA 7
- 2 GET 0 RMA 6
- 3 GET 0 RMA 5
- 4 GET 0 RMA 5
- 5 GET 0 RMA 4
- 6 GET 1 RMA 4
- 7 GET 1 RMA 4
- 8 GET 0 RMA 3
- 9 GET 0 RMA 2
- 10 GET 3 RMA 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 1%, 4% end level, Real Madrid win 94%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Getafe by 2 | 0.3% |
| Getafe by 1 | 1.2% |
| Draw | 4.2% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 9.7% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 15.2% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 69.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 13 | 1 | 0.70 | +0.30 |
 Real Madrid | 22 | 5 | 3.12 | +1.88 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 39' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 49' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 83' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 87' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 91' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.84 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | James David Rodríguez Rubio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% GET |
| 2 | 15' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GET |
| 3 | 16' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RMA |
| 4 | 25' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GET |
| 5 | 26' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GET |
| 6 | 28' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +19% RMA |
| 7 | 39' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +12% RMA |
| 8 | 49' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +3% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 0% · draw 2% · Real Madrid 97%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 1% · draw 4% · Real Madrid 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Atlético 3–0 Granada Apr 17, 2016 · replay 84% for Atlético
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia