Matchday 33 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Atlético 3–0 Granada: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Granada 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1.65 |
 Granada | 0 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Atlético about even · −16 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 8, 2 end level, Granada win 0.
- 1 ATM 1 GRA 0
- 2 ATM 1 GRA 0
- 3 ATM 1 GRA 0
- 4 ATM 2 GRA 0
- 5 ATM 2 GRA 0
- 6 ATM 3 GRA 0
- 7 ATM 4 GRA 1
- 8 ATM 5 GRA 0
- 9 ATM 1 GRA 1
- 10 ATM 0 GRA 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 76%, 16% end level, Granada win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 27.6% |
| Atlético by 2 | 22.1% |
| Atlético by 1 | 26.0% |
| Draw | 16.3% |
| Granada by 1 | 6.3% |
| Granada by 2 | 1.7% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 8 | 3 | 1.65 | +1.35 |
 Granada | 11 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 58' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.64 |
| 82' | Ángel Martín Correa scored from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% GRA |
| 2 | 14' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GRA |
| 3 | 14' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +20% ATM |
| 4 | 23' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GRA |
| 5 | 27' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ATM |
| 6 | 30' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATM |
| 7 | 58' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +4% ATM |
| 8 | 70' | David Barral Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +1% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 89% · draw 9% · Granada 2%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 76% · draw 16% · Granada 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 33 matches, 2015-16 · Atlético · Granada
More from matchday 33, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Espanyol Apr 15, 2016 · replay 41% for Levante
- Eibar 2–1 Real Sociedad Apr 16, 2016 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Celta 1–1 Betis Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Getafe 1–5 Real Madrid Apr 16, 2016 · replay 96% for Real Madrid
- Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Villarreal Apr 17, 2016 · replay 68% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Athletic Apr 17, 2016 · replay 33% for Athletic
- Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Barcelona 1–2 Valencia Apr 17, 2016 · replay 26% for Valencia