Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 19, 2016
Betis 1–0 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Las Palmas 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Betis win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Betis made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 2.24 |
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Betis about even · −7 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 9, 1 ends level, Las Palmas win 0.
- 1 BET 1 LPA 0
- 2 BET 1 LPA 0
- 3 BET 2 LPA 0
- 4 BET 2 LPA 0
- 5 BET 2 LPA 0
- 6 BET 3 LPA 0
- 7 BET 3 LPA 0
- 8 BET 4 LPA 0
- 9 BET 5 LPA 0
- 10 BET 0 LPA 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 87%, 11% end level, Las Palmas win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 40.0% |
| Betis by 2 | 25.2% |
| Betis by 1 | 21.9% |
| Draw | 11.0% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 1.8% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.1% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 21 | 1 | 2.24 | −1.24 |
 Las Palmas | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | −0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 76' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
| 82' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +8% LPA |
| 2 | 29' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% LPA |
| 3 | 55' | David Simón Rodríguez Santana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% BET |
| 4 | 59' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +10% LPA |
| 5 | 74' | Daniel Ceballos Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LPA |
| 6 | 76' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +22% LPA |
| 7 | 82' | Joaquín Sánchez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LPA |
| 8 | 82' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +35% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 89% · draw 10% · Las Palmas 1%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 87% · draw 11% · Las Palmas 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Betis · Las Palmas
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–1 Celta Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe Apr 21, 2016 · replay 59% for Getafe