Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 3 | 1.41 |
 Villarreal | 0 | 0.28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Real Madrid about even · −17 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 7, 2 end level, Villarreal win 1.
- 1 RMA 1 VIL 0
- 2 RMA 1 VIL 0
- 3 RMA 1 VIL 0
- 4 RMA 2 VIL 0
- 5 RMA 2 VIL 0
- 6 RMA 3 VIL 0
- 7 RMA 4 VIL 0
- 8 RMA 0 VIL 0
- 9 RMA 1 VIL 1
- 10 RMA 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 73%, 22% end level, Villarreal win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 19.1% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 23.4% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 30.1% |
| Draw | 21.6% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 5.1% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 0.6% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 20 | 3 | 1.41 | +1.59 |
 Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 0.28 | −0.28 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 68' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 75' | Luka Modrić scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Raphaël Varane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% VIL |
| 2 | 28' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% VIL |
| 3 | 31' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VIL |
| 4 | 40' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +19% RMA |
| 5 | 42' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RMA |
| 6 | 47' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% VIL |
| 7 | 57' | Jonathan dos Santos Ramírez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% RMA |
| 8 | 68' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +8% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 93% · draw 6% · Villarreal 1%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 73% · draw 22% · Villarreal 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
- Espanyol 1–1 Celta Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe Apr 21, 2016 · replay 59% for Getafe