Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 21, 2016
Granada 5–1 Levante: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Levante 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Granada win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Granada made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 5 | 3.09 |
 Levante | 1 | 1.04 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Granada about even · −6 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 9, 1 ends level, Levante win 0.
- 1 GRA 2 LEV 1
- 2 GRA 3 LEV 1
- 3 GRA 4 LEV 2
- 4 GRA 3 LEV 0
- 5 GRA 4 LEV 1
- 6 GRA 8 LEV 4
- 7 GRA 5 LEV 0
- 8 GRA 6 LEV 0
- 9 GRA 8 LEV 1
- 10 GRA 1 LEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 91%, 6% end level, Levante win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 64.2% |
| Granada by 2 | 16.0% |
| Granada by 1 | 10.8% |
| Draw | 6.2% |
| Levante by 1 | 2.1% |
| Levante by 2 | 0.4% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 13 (2 pen) | 5 | 3.09 | +1.91 |
 Levante | 14 | 1 | 1.04 | −0.04 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 34' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 43' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 71' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 81' | Rubén García Santos scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 84' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 92' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.59 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LEV |
| 2 | 20' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +5% LEV |
| 3 | 24' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +17% GRA |
| 4 | 30' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +0% GRA |
| 5 | 32' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% LEV |
| 6 | 34' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% GRA |
| 7 | 43' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% GRA |
| 8 | 71' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +0% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 95% · draw 4% · Levante 1%
- Final margin
- Granada by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 91% · draw 6% · Levante 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Levante
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
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- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
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- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
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