Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Sporting 2–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Sporting beat Sevilla 2–1, but the replays call it even: Sporting win 3 of 10, Sevilla 5, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.8). An own goal helped Sporting.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 2 | 1.56 |
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Sporting lucky · −55 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 3, 2 end level, Sevilla win 5.
- 1 SPO 3 SEV 2
- 2 SPO 2 SEV 1
- 3 SPO 3 SEV 0
- 4 SPO 1 SEV 1
- 5 SPO 2 SEV 2
- 6 SPO 1 SEV 5
- 7 SPO 0 SEV 2
- 8 SPO 1 SEV 3
- 9 SPO 0 SEV 1
- 10 SPO 0 SEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 34%, 22% end level, Sevilla win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 6.2% |
| Sporting by 2 | 10.3% |
| Sporting by 1 | 17.9% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 20.3% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 12.2% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 11.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 14 | 1 | 1.56 | −0.56 |
 Sevilla | 18 | 1 | 1.80 | −0.80 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 49' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 63' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 90' | Ismael López Blanco scored from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +19% SEV |
| 2 | 21' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for SportingOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +26% SPO |
| 3 | 49' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +11% SEV |
| 4 | 51' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% SPO |
| 5 | 61' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +8% SPO |
| 6 | 63' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +13% SPO |
| 7 | 83' | Daniel Arnaud N''Di didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% SEV |
| 8 | 90' | Ismael López Blanco scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +25% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 32% · draw 24% · Sevilla 44%
- Final margin
- Sporting by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 34% · draw 22% · Sevilla 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Sevilla
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