Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Málaga 1–1 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Málaga and Rayo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Málaga win 4 of 10, Rayo 3, and 3 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 1 | 0.99 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0.71 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −5 Málaga about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 4, 3 end level, Rayo win 3.
- 1 MAL 1 RAY 0
- 2 MAL 1 RAY 0
- 3 MAL 3 RAY 2
- 4 MAL 2 RAY 0
- 5 MAL 0 RAY 0
- 6 MAL 1 RAY 1
- 7 MAL 1 RAY 1
- 8 MAL 0 RAY 2
- 9 MAL 0 RAY 1
- 10 MAL 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 39%, 33% end level, Rayo win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Málaga by 2 | 10.3% |
| Málaga by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 33.1% |
| Rayo by 1 | 19.5% |
| Rayo by 2 | 6.6% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 12 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
 Rayo | 11 | 1 | 0.71 | +0.29 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 61' | José Raúl Baena Urdiales scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 90' | Federico Ricca Rostagnol scored from a shot | 0.28 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Gonzalo Castro Irizábal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% RAY |
| 2 | 4' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% RAY |
| 3 | 22' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RAY |
| 4 | 46' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +8% MAL |
| 5 | 46' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% MAL |
| 6 | 61' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chanceJosé Raúl Baena Urdiales scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +34% RAY |
| 7 | 64' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% RAY |
| 8 | 90' | Federico Ricca Rostagnol scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +36% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 41% · draw 34% · Rayo 25%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 39% · draw 33% · Rayo 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
- Espanyol 1–1 Celta Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe Apr 21, 2016 · replay 59% for Getafe