Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 21, 2016
Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Real Sociedad 2–1, and the replays lean Getafe’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Real Sociedad, 3 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 0.95 |
 Getafe | 2 | 1.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Getafe lucky · −41 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 3, 3 end level, Getafe win 4.
- 1 RSO 3 GET 2
- 2 RSO 3 GET 2
- 3 RSO 2 GET 0
- 4 RSO 0 GET 0
- 5 RSO 1 GET 1
- 6 RSO 0 GET 0
- 7 RSO 0 GET 2
- 8 RSO 0 GET 2
- 9 RSO 1 GET 2
- 10 RSO 0 GET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 27%, 28% end level, Getafe win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 7.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 17.1% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Getafe by 1 | 24.0% |
| Getafe by 2 | 13.4% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 8.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 1 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
 Getafe | 7 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.31 | +0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 44' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 55' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Markel Bergara Larrañaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% GET |
| 2 | 18' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +19% RSO |
| 3 | 39' | Emiliano Buendía didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% RSO |
| 4 | 44' | The game turned herePablo Sarabia García scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +24% GET |
| 5 | 55' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% GET |
| 6 | 68' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% GET |
| 7 | 70' | Íñigo Martínez Berridi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GET |
| 8 | 83' | Íñigo Martínez Berridi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 23% · draw 30% · Getafe 47%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 27% · draw 28% · Getafe 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
- Espanyol 1–1 Celta Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada