Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 19, 2016
Espanyol 1–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Espanyol and Celta drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 5 of 10, Celta 1, and 4 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 1 | 0.90 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −15 Espanyol about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 5, 4 end level, Celta win 1.
- 1 ESP 1 CEL 0
- 2 ESP 1 CEL 0
- 3 ESP 1 CEL 0
- 4 ESP 2 CEL 0
- 5 ESP 3 CEL 1
- 6 ESP 0 CEL 0
- 7 ESP 1 CEL 1
- 8 ESP 0 CEL 0
- 9 ESP 0 CEL 0
- 10 ESP 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 46%, 38% end level, Celta win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 4.9% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 11.7% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 29.6% |
| Draw | 38.5% |
| Celta by 1 | 12.7% |
| Celta by 2 | 2.4% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 9 | 1 | 0.90 | +0.10 |
 Celta | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | +0.64 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 27' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 38' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +10% CEL |
| 2 | 27' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +21% CEL |
| 3 | 34' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 34' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% CEL |
| 5 | 38' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +30% ESP |
| 6 | 46' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CEL |
| 7 | 49' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ESP |
| 8 | 73' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 52% · draw 35% · Celta 14%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 46% · draw 38% · Celta 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe Apr 21, 2016 · replay 59% for Getafe