Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Deportivo 8–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 10 of 10. Barcelona made the better chances: 4.0 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 1.63 |
 Barcelona | 8 | 4.03 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Barcelona about even · −4 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 0, 0 end level, Barcelona win 10.
- 1 DEP 0 BAR 9
- 2 DEP 1 BAR 8
- 3 DEP 0 BAR 6
- 4 DEP 2 BAR 7
- 5 DEP 2 BAR 7
- 6 DEP 0 BAR 4
- 7 DEP 3 BAR 6
- 8 DEP 1 BAR 4
- 9 DEP 2 BAR 4
- 10 DEP 2 BAR 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 2%, 3% end level, Barcelona win 95%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 8.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 0.4% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 1.3% |
| Draw | 3.4% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 6.8% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 11.8% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 76.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 17 | 0 | 1.63 | −1.63 |
 Barcelona | 17 | 8 | 4.03 | +3.97 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 17' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 23' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 46' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 52' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 63' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.57 |
| 63' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.54 |
| 68' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 72' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 78' | Marc Bartra Aregall scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 80' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% DEP |
| 2 | 10' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +16% BAR |
| 3 | 17' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +11% BAR |
| 4 | 18' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% BAR |
| 5 | 18' | Oriol Riera Magem didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BAR |
| 6 | 22' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% DEP |
| 7 | 23' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +10% BAR |
| 8 | 46' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +4% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 0% · draw 0% · Barcelona 99%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 8
- Luck in goals
- 4.2 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 3.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 2% · draw 3% · Barcelona 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
- Espanyol 1–1 Celta Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe Apr 21, 2016 · replay 59% for Getafe