Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Valencia 4–0 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Eibar 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Valencia win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 4 | 2.66 |
 Eibar | 0 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Valencia about even · −8 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 9, 1 ends level, Eibar win 0.
- 1 VAL 3 EIB 2
- 2 VAL 2 EIB 1
- 3 VAL 2 EIB 0
- 4 VAL 4 EIB 1
- 5 VAL 4 EIB 1
- 6 VAL 4 EIB 1
- 7 VAL 4 EIB 0
- 8 VAL 6 EIB 1
- 9 VAL 8 EIB 1
- 10 VAL 0 EIB 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 87%, 9% end level, Eibar win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 52.4% |
| Valencia by 2 | 19.8% |
| Valencia by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 8.7% |
| Eibar by 1 | 2.6% |
| Eibar by 2 | 0.9% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 9 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.66 | +1.34 |
 Eibar | 9 | 0 | 0.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 9' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 27' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 39' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 55' | João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo scored from a shot | 0.52 |
| 67' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +18% EIB |
| 2 | 9' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +12% VAL |
| 3 | 23' | Takashi Inui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% VAL |
| 4 | 25' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% VAL |
| 5 | 27' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% VAL |
| 6 | 29' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +0% EIB |
| 7 | 39' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +2% VAL |
| 8 | 42' | Takashi Inui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +0% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 94% · draw 4% · Eibar 1%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 87% · draw 9% · Eibar 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Valencia · Eibar
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
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- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–1 Atlético Apr 20, 2016 · replay 64% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe Apr 21, 2016 · replay 59% for Getafe