Matchday 34 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 20, 2016
Athletic 0–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Athletic 1–0, and the replays lean Atlético’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Athletic, 3 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 0 | 0.61 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.91 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Atlético lucky · −36 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 2, 3 end level, Atlético win 5.
- 1 ATH 2 ATM 1
- 2 ATH 2 ATM 1
- 3 ATH 0 ATM 0
- 4 ATH 1 ATM 1
- 5 ATH 1 ATM 1
- 6 ATH 0 ATM 3
- 7 ATH 0 ATM 2
- 8 ATH 1 ATM 2
- 9 ATH 0 ATM 1
- 10 ATH 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 20%, 32% end level, Atlético win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Athletic by 2 | 3.9% |
| Athletic by 1 | 14.8% |
| Draw | 32.0% |
| Atlético by 1 | 27.6% |
| Atlético by 2 | 13.8% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 7.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 13 | 0 | 0.61 | −0.61 |
 Atlético | 8 | 1 | 0.91 | +0.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 37' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 93' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37' | The game turned hereFernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +27% ATM |
| 2 | 40' | Thomas Teye Partey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +4% ATH |
| 3 | 54' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 4 | 74' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
| 5 | 76' | Borja Viguera Manzanares didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATM |
| 6 | 79' | Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% ATM |
| 7 | 89' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
| 8 | 91' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 23% · draw 34% · Atlético 43%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 20% · draw 32% · Atlético 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Betis 1–0 Las Palmas Apr 19, 2016 · replay 93% for Betis
- Espanyol 1–1 Celta Apr 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Rayo Apr 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 33% draws
- Sporting 2–1 Sevilla Apr 20, 2016 · replay 45% for Sporting
- Valencia 4–0 Eibar Apr 20, 2016 · replay 92% for Valencia
- Real Madrid 3–0 Villarreal Apr 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 0–8 Barcelona Apr 20, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona
- Granada 5–1 Levante Apr 21, 2016 · replay 94% for Granada
- Real Sociedad 1–2 Getafe Apr 21, 2016 · replay 59% for Getafe