Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 29, 2016
Sporting 2–0 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Sporting beat Eibar 2–0, but the replays lean toward Eibar: 3 wins in 10 to Sporting’s 2, 5 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 2 | 0.35 |
 Eibar | 0 | 0.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +59 Sporting lucky · −59 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 2, 5 end level, Eibar win 3.
- 1 SPO 1 EIB 0
- 2 SPO 1 EIB 0
- 3 SPO 0 EIB 0
- 4 SPO 1 EIB 1
- 5 SPO 0 EIB 0
- 6 SPO 0 EIB 0
- 7 SPO 0 EIB 0
- 8 SPO 0 EIB 2
- 9 SPO 0 EIB 1
- 10 SPO 0 EIB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 19%, 46% end level, Eibar win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Sporting by 2 | 3.0% |
| Sporting by 1 | 14.8% |
| Draw | 45.7% |
| Eibar by 1 | 24.9% |
| Eibar by 2 | 8.8% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 3 | 2 | 0.35 | +1.65 |
 Eibar | 12 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Carlos Carmona Bonet scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 81' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | José Ignacio Peleteiro Ramallo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% SPO |
| 2 | 35' | José Ignacio Peleteiro Ramallo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% SPO |
| 3 | 42' | Carlos Carmona Bonet scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +24% SPO |
| 4 | 57' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SPO |
| 5 | 71' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% SPO |
| 6 | 71' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SPO |
| 7 | 76' | Ander Capa Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% SPO |
| 8 | 81' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 58% · draw 29% · Eibar 13%
- Final margin
- Sporting by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 19% · draw 46% · Eibar 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 41% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Eibar
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