Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Granada 3–2 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Las Palmas 3–2, but the replays call it even: Granada win 4 of 10, Las Palmas 4, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 3 | 1.40 |
 Las Palmas | 2 | 1.31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Granada lucky · −49 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 4, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 4.
- 1 GRA 1 LPA 0
- 2 GRA 2 LPA 1
- 3 GRA 3 LPA 1
- 4 GRA 3 LPA 0
- 5 GRA 0 LPA 0
- 6 GRA 0 LPA 0
- 7 GRA 2 LPA 5
- 8 GRA 1 LPA 3
- 9 GRA 1 LPA 2
- 10 GRA 2 LPA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 39%, 24% end level, Las Palmas win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 7.4% |
| Granada by 2 | 11.6% |
| Granada by 1 | 20.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 19.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 11.8% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 14 | 3 | 1.40 | +1.60 |
 Las Palmas | 11 | 2 | 1.31 | +0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 11' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 12' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 21' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 52' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 70' | Ricardo Miguel Moreira da Costa scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 79' | Abdoulaye Doucouré didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +24% LPA |
| 2 | 11' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +15% LPA |
| 3 | 12' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +17% GRA |
| 4 | 18' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +4% GRA |
| 5 | 21' | The game turned hereYoussef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +21% GRA |
| 6 | 52' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +13% GRA |
| 7 | 55' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% LPA |
| 8 | 70' | Ricardo Miguel Moreira da Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +33% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 40% · draw 28% · Las Palmas 32%
- Final margin
- Granada by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 39% · draw 24% · Las Palmas 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Las Palmas
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