Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 1, 2016
Valencia 0–2 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Valencia 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 0 | 0.32 |
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.04 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Villarreal about even · −21 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 1, 3 end level, Villarreal win 6.
- 1 VAL 1 VIL 0
- 2 VAL 1 VIL 1
- 3 VAL 0 VIL 0
- 4 VAL 0 VIL 0
- 5 VAL 0 VIL 3
- 6 VAL 1 VIL 3
- 7 VAL 0 VIL 2
- 8 VAL 0 VIL 1
- 9 VAL 1 VIL 2
- 10 VAL 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 8%, 26% end level, Villarreal win 66%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Valencia by 2 | 0.8% |
| Valencia by 1 | 7.0% |
| Draw | 26.1% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 32.3% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 20.3% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 13.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 7 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
 Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 1.04 | +0.96 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Samuel García Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 32' | Adrián López Álvarez scored from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% VIL |
| 2 | 13' | The game turned hereSamuel García Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +24% VIL |
| 3 | 23' | Rodrigo Hernández Cascante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% VAL |
| 4 | 32' | Adrián López Álvarez scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +11% VIL |
| 5 | 39' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% VAL |
| 6 | 40' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +3% VIL |
| 7 | 46' | Manuel Trigueros Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +1% VAL |
| 8 | 46' | Rodrigo Hernández Cascante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +1% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 3% · draw 10% · Villarreal 87%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 8% · draw 26% · Villarreal 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Atlético 1–0 Rayo Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid Apr 30, 2016 · replay 71% for Real Madrid
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Betis 0–2 Barcelona Apr 30, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Deportivo 0–2 Getafe May 1, 2016 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Athletic 2–1 Celta May 1, 2016 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Espanyol
- Málaga 3–1 Levante May 2, 2016 · replay 63% for Málaga