Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 1, 2016
Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Sevilla 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Espanyol about even · −21 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 7, 2 end level, Sevilla win 1.
- 1 ESP 1 SEV 0
- 2 ESP 2 SEV 1
- 3 ESP 2 SEV 1
- 4 ESP 2 SEV 0
- 5 ESP 2 SEV 0
- 6 ESP 3 SEV 0
- 7 ESP 4 SEV 0
- 8 ESP 0 SEV 0
- 9 ESP 1 SEV 1
- 10 ESP 0 SEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 68%, 23% end level, Sevilla win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 18.9% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 21.9% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 26.9% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 8.1% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 1.3% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 12 | 1 | 1.51 | −0.51 |
 Sevilla | 7 | 0 | 0.38 | −0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 51' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.63 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ESP |
| 2 | 10' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% ESP |
| 3 | 32' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 48' | Víctor Sánchez Mata didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% SEV |
| 5 | 51' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +11% ESP |
| 6 | 62' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +1% SEV |
| 7 | 73' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +2% SEV |
| 8 | 73' | Víctor Sánchez Mata didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +1% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 72% · draw 21% · Sevilla 7%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 68% · draw 23% · Sevilla 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Atlético 1–0 Rayo Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid Apr 30, 2016 · replay 71% for Real Madrid
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Betis 0–2 Barcelona Apr 30, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Deportivo 0–2 Getafe May 1, 2016 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Villarreal
- Athletic 2–1 Celta May 1, 2016 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Málaga 3–1 Levante May 2, 2016 · replay 63% for Málaga