Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Atlético 1–0 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Rayo 1–0, but the replays call it even: Atlético win 4 of 10, Rayo 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.74 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Atlético lucky · −47 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 4, 3 end level, Rayo win 3.
- 1 ATM 1 RAY 0
- 2 ATM 1 RAY 0
- 3 ATM 1 RAY 0
- 4 ATM 2 RAY 0
- 5 ATM 0 RAY 0
- 6 ATM 1 RAY 1
- 7 ATM 0 RAY 0
- 8 ATM 0 RAY 2
- 9 ATM 0 RAY 1
- 10 ATM 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 35%, 34% end level, Rayo win 30%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 3.0% |
| Atlético by 2 | 8.2% |
| Atlético by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 34.4% |
| Rayo by 1 | 21.3% |
| Rayo by 2 | 6.8% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 12 | 1 | 0.74 | +0.26 |
 Rayo | 13 | 0 | 0.79 | −0.79 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% RAY |
| 2 | 22' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ATM |
| 3 | 23' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ATM |
| 4 | 51' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% ATM |
| 5 | 54' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +30% ATM |
| 6 | 67' | Francisco Medina Luna didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
| 7 | 69' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +2% RAY |
| 8 | 80' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +9% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 33% · draw 34% · Rayo 33%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 35% · draw 34% · Rayo 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid Apr 30, 2016 · replay 71% for Real Madrid
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Betis 0–2 Barcelona Apr 30, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Deportivo 0–2 Getafe May 1, 2016 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Villarreal
- Athletic 2–1 Celta May 1, 2016 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Espanyol
- Málaga 3–1 Levante May 2, 2016 · replay 63% for Málaga