Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 1, 2016
Deportivo 0–2 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Deportivo 2–0, and the replays lean Getafe’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Deportivo, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 0.66 |
 Getafe | 2 | 0.85 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Getafe lucky · −38 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 2, 3 end level, Getafe win 5.
- 1 DEP 1 GET 0
- 2 DEP 2 GET 0
- 3 DEP 0 GET 0
- 4 DEP 1 GET 1
- 5 DEP 0 GET 0
- 6 DEP 0 GET 3
- 7 DEP 0 GET 2
- 8 DEP 0 GET 1
- 9 DEP 0 GET 1
- 10 DEP 1 GET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 22%, 32% end level, Getafe win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 4.8% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 32.3% |
| Getafe by 1 | 26.3% |
| Getafe by 2 | 13.4% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 5.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 15 | 0 | 0.66 | −0.66 |
 Getafe | 9 | 2 | 0.85 | +1.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 84' | Carlos Martín Vigaray scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% DEP |
| 2 | 40' | The game turned herePedro León Sánchez Gil scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +27% GET |
| 3 | 50' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +3% GET |
| 4 | 54' | Celso Borges Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% GET |
| 5 | 61' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% GET |
| 6 | 67' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +3% DEP |
| 7 | 75' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GET |
| 8 | 84' | Carlos Martín Vigaray scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 9% · draw 19% · Getafe 72%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 22% · draw 32% · Getafe 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Atlético 1–0 Rayo Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid Apr 30, 2016 · replay 71% for Real Madrid
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Betis 0–2 Barcelona Apr 30, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Villarreal
- Athletic 2–1 Celta May 1, 2016 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Espanyol
- Málaga 3–1 Levante May 2, 2016 · replay 63% for Málaga