Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Betis 0–2 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Betis 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 0 | 0.09 |
 Barcelona | 2 | 2.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Barcelona about even · −7 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 0, 1 ends level, Barcelona win 9.
- 1 BET 0 BAR 0
- 2 BET 0 BAR 5
- 3 BET 0 BAR 4
- 4 BET 0 BAR 3
- 5 BET 0 BAR 3
- 6 BET 0 BAR 2
- 7 BET 0 BAR 2
- 8 BET 0 BAR 1
- 9 BET 1 BAR 2
- 10 BET 0 BAR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 1%, 12% end level, Barcelona win 87%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.1% |
| Betis by 1 | 1.0% |
| Draw | 12.1% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 24.1% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 24.4% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 38.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | −0.09 |
 Barcelona | 12 | 2 | 2.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.91 |
| 80' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Andrés Iniesta Luján didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BET |
| 2 | 25' | Ivan Rakitić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% BET |
| 3 | 26' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% BET |
| 4 | 28' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BET |
| 5 | 46' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% BET |
| 6 | 49' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shotFinishing · 91% chance | +3% BAR |
| 7 | 73' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% BET |
| 8 | 80' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +4% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 0% · draw 2% · Barcelona 98%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 2
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 1% · draw 12% · Barcelona 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Atlético 1–0 Rayo Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid Apr 30, 2016 · replay 71% for Real Madrid
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Deportivo 0–2 Getafe May 1, 2016 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Villarreal
- Athletic 2–1 Celta May 1, 2016 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Espanyol
- Málaga 3–1 Levante May 2, 2016 · replay 63% for Málaga