Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 1, 2016
Athletic 2–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Celta 2–1, and the replays lean Athletic’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Celta, 3 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 2 | 1.41 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Athletic lucky · −29 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 6, 3 end level, Celta win 1.
- 1 ATH 2 CEL 1
- 2 ATH 3 CEL 2
- 3 ATH 1 CEL 0
- 4 ATH 3 CEL 1
- 5 ATH 2 CEL 0
- 6 ATH 3 CEL 0
- 7 ATH 1 CEL 1
- 8 ATH 1 CEL 1
- 9 ATH 0 CEL 0
- 10 ATH 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 57%, 29% end level, Celta win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 10.8% |
| Athletic by 2 | 17.9% |
| Athletic by 1 | 28.3% |
| Draw | 28.6% |
| Celta by 1 | 11.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 2.6% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.41 | +0.59 |
 Celta | 5 | 1 | 0.44 | +0.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 37' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 71' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +18% CEL |
| 2 | 37' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% ATH |
| 3 | 42' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 60' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CEL |
| 5 | 65' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CEL |
| 6 | 71' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% CEL |
| 7 | 71' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +32% ATH |
| 8 | 89' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 68% · draw 25% · Celta 7%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 57% · draw 29% · Celta 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Atlético 1–0 Rayo Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid Apr 30, 2016 · replay 71% for Real Madrid
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Betis 0–2 Barcelona Apr 30, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Deportivo 0–2 Getafe May 1, 2016 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Espanyol
- Málaga 3–1 Levante May 2, 2016 · replay 63% for Málaga