Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · May 2, 2016
Málaga 3–1 Levante: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Levante 3–1, and the replays lean Málaga’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Levante, 2 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Málaga lucky · −37 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 5, 2 end level, Levante win 3.
- 1 MAL 1 LEV 0
- 2 MAL 5 LEV 4
- 3 MAL 3 LEV 1
- 4 MAL 5 LEV 2
- 5 MAL 4 LEV 0
- 6 MAL 1 LEV 1
- 7 MAL 1 LEV 1
- 8 MAL 3 LEV 6
- 9 MAL 2 LEV 3
- 10 MAL 1 LEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 54%, 18% end level, Levante win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 17.1% |
| Málaga by 2 | 16.0% |
| Málaga by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 17.6% |
| Levante by 1 | 14.8% |
| Levante by 2 | 8.2% |
| Levante by 3+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 24 | 3 | 2.41 | +0.59 |
 Levante | 11 | 1 | 1.80 | −0.80 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 30' | Duje Čop scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 41' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 74' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 74' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
| 88' | Duje Čop scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 92' | Gonzalo Castro Irizábal scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +10% MAL |
| 2 | 30' | Duje Čop scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +21% MAL |
| 3 | 41' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +21% LEV |
| 4 | 50' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% MAL |
| 5 | 74' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +16% LEV |
| 6 | 74' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +22% MAL |
| 7 | 88' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% LEV |
| 8 | 88' | Duje Čop scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +38% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 73% · draw 14% · Levante 13%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 54% · draw 18% · Levante 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Atlético 1–0 Rayo Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid Apr 30, 2016 · replay 71% for Real Madrid
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Betis 0–2 Barcelona Apr 30, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Deportivo 0–2 Getafe May 1, 2016 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Villarreal
- Athletic 2–1 Celta May 1, 2016 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Espanyol