Matchday 36 · La Liga 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Real Sociedad 0–1 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 1–0, and the replays lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Real Sociedad, 3 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.45 |
 Real Madrid | 1 | 1.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Real Madrid lucky · −29 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 1, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 6.
- 1 RSO 1 RMA 0
- 2 RSO 1 RMA 1
- 3 RSO 0 RMA 0
- 4 RSO 0 RMA 0
- 5 RSO 0 RMA 3
- 6 RSO 0 RMA 2
- 7 RSO 0 RMA 2
- 8 RSO 1 RMA 2
- 9 RSO 1 RMA 2
- 10 RSO 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 14%, 31% end level, Real Madrid win 55%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 2.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 10.5% |
| Draw | 31.1% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 29.1% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 17.0% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 11 | 0 | 0.45 | −0.45 |
 Real Madrid | 18 | 1 | 1.16 | −0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 79' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RSO |
| 2 | 8' | James David Rodríguez Rubio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RSO |
| 3 | 39' | José Ignacio Fernández Iglesias didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RSO |
| 4 | 57' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +8% RSO |
| 5 | 77' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% RSO |
| 6 | 79' | The game turned hereGareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +41% RMA |
| 7 | 89' | Mikel González de Martín Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% RMA |
| 8 | 91' | David Zurutuza Veillet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 15% · draw 29% · Real Madrid 56%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 14% · draw 31% · Real Madrid 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Real Sociedad · Real Madrid
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–0 Eibar Apr 29, 2016 · replay 41% for Sporting
- Atlético 1–0 Rayo Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Atlético
- Granada 3–2 Las Palmas Apr 30, 2016 · replay 51% for Granada
- Betis 0–2 Barcelona Apr 30, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Deportivo 0–2 Getafe May 1, 2016 · replay 62% for Getafe
- Valencia 0–2 Villarreal May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Villarreal
- Athletic 2–1 Celta May 1, 2016 · replay 71% for Athletic
- Espanyol 1–0 Sevilla May 1, 2016 · replay 79% for Espanyol
- Málaga 3–1 Levante May 2, 2016 · replay 63% for Málaga