Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 9, 2015
Newcastle 2–2 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Newcastle and Southampton drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 4 of 10, Southampton 3, and 3 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 2 | 1.61 |
 Southampton | 2 | 1.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −2 Newcastle about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 4, 3 end level, Southampton win 3.
- 1 NEW 2 SOU 1
- 2 NEW 2 SOU 1
- 3 NEW 2 SOU 0
- 4 NEW 3 SOU 0
- 5 NEW 1 SOU 1
- 6 NEW 1 SOU 1
- 7 NEW 3 SOU 3
- 8 NEW 0 SOU 3
- 9 NEW 0 SOU 1
- 10 NEW 1 SOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 40%, 26% end level, Southampton win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 7.7% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 12.3% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 19.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Southampton by 1 | 18.5% |
| Southampton by 2 | 10.8% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 10 | 2 | 1.61 | +0.39 |
 Southampton | 14 | 2 | 1.33 | +0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 41' | Papiss Demba Cissé scored from a shot | 0.87 |
| 47' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 78' | Shane Long scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% SOU |
| 2 | 23' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +27% SOU |
| 3 | 41' | Papiss Demba Cissé scored from a shotFinishing · 87% chance | +4% NEW |
| 4 | 46' | Maya Yoshida didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% NEW |
| 5 | 47' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +27% NEW |
| 6 | 78' | Shane Long scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +35% SOU |
| 7 | 90' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +14% NEW |
| 8 | 93' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 44% · draw 27% · Southampton 29%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 40% · draw 26% · Southampton 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Newcastle · Southampton
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Man United 1–0 Tottenham Aug 8, 2015 · replay 53% for Man United
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