Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 8, 2015
Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 1–0, but the replays lean toward Bournemouth: 5 wins in 10 to Aston Villa’s 2, 3 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 1.25 |
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Aston Villa very lucky · −62 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 5, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 2.
- 1 BOU 1 AVL 0
- 2 BOU 1 AVL 0
- 3 BOU 1 AVL 0
- 4 BOU 2 AVL 0
- 5 BOU 3 AVL 0
- 6 BOU 1 AVL 1
- 7 BOU 1 AVL 1
- 8 BOU 0 AVL 0
- 9 BOU 1 AVL 3
- 10 BOU 1 AVL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 47%, 31% end level, Aston Villa win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Aston Villa by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 7.5% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 14.2% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 25.0% |
| Draw | 30.6% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 16.2% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 5.3% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 12 | 0 | 1.25 | −1.25 |
 Aston Villa | 7 | 1 | 0.65 | +0.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 36' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 40' | Callum Wilson didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 71' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +12% AVL |
| 2 | 40' | Callum Wilson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +9% AVL |
| 3 | 42' | Leandro Bacuna didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +3% BOU |
| 4 | 46' | Marc Pugh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% AVL |
| 5 | 47' | Idrissa Gana Gueye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% BOU |
| 6 | 67' | Gabriel Imuetinyan Agbonlahor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% BOU |
| 7 | 67' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% BOU |
| 8 | 71' | The game turned hereRudy Gestede scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +37% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 53% · draw 28% · Aston Villa 19%
- Final margin
- Aston Villa by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 47% · draw 31% · Aston Villa 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Aston Villa win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Man United 1–0 Tottenham Aug 8, 2015 · replay 53% for Man United
- Leicester 4–2 Sunderland Aug 8, 2015 · replay 85% for Leicester
- Everton 2–2 Watford Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace Aug 8, 2015 · replay 68% for Crystal Palace
- Chelsea 2–2 Swansea Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Newcastle 2–2 Southampton Aug 9, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Stoke 0–1 Liverpool Aug 9, 2015 · replay 44% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–2 West Ham Aug 9, 2015 · replay 37% for West Ham
- West Brom 0–3 Man City Aug 10, 2015 · replay 88% for Man City