Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 9, 2015
Stoke 0–1 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Stoke 1–0, but the replays lean toward Stoke: 3 wins in 10 to Liverpool’s 2, 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.4 expected goals to 0.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.42 |
 Liverpool | 1 | 0.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Liverpool lucky · −56 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 3, 5 end level, Liverpool win 2.
- 1 STK 1 LIV 0
- 2 STK 1 LIV 0
- 3 STK 1 LIV 0
- 4 STK 0 LIV 0
- 5 STK 0 LIV 0
- 6 STK 0 LIV 0
- 7 STK 0 LIV 0
- 8 STK 0 LIV 0
- 9 STK 0 LIV 1
- 10 STK 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 30%, 54% end level, Liverpool win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Stoke by 2 | 5.4% |
| Stoke by 1 | 23.1% |
| Draw | 53.6% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 14.4% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 2.3% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 6 | 0 | 0.42 | −0.42 |
 Liverpool | 8 | 1 | 0.25 | +0.75 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 85' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Charlie Adam didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LIV |
| 2 | 18' | Adam David Lallana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% STK |
| 3 | 35' | Ibrahim Afellay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LIV |
| 4 | 35' | Glen Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LIV |
| 5 | 66' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% STK |
| 6 | 67' | Martin Škrtel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% STK |
| 7 | 79' | Marco van Ginkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% LIV |
| 8 | 85' | The game turned herePhilippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +46% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 30% · draw 52% · Liverpool 18%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 30% · draw 54% · Liverpool 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Liverpool
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Man United 1–0 Tottenham Aug 8, 2015 · replay 53% for Man United
- Leicester 4–2 Sunderland Aug 8, 2015 · replay 85% for Leicester
- Everton 2–2 Watford Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace Aug 8, 2015 · replay 68% for Crystal Palace
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa Aug 8, 2015 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Chelsea 2–2 Swansea Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Newcastle 2–2 Southampton Aug 9, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Arsenal 0–2 West Ham Aug 9, 2015 · replay 37% for West Ham
- West Brom 0–3 Man City Aug 10, 2015 · replay 88% for Man City