Matchday 1 · Premier League 2015-16 · August 8, 2015
Everton 2–2 Watford: who deserved to win?
Everton and Watford drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Everton win 3 of 10, Watford 3, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 2 | 0.78 |
 Watford | 2 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Everton about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 3, 4 end level, Watford win 3.
- 1 EVE 1 WAT 0
- 2 EVE 2 WAT 1
- 3 EVE 2 WAT 0
- 4 EVE 0 WAT 0
- 5 EVE 0 WAT 0
- 6 EVE 1 WAT 1
- 7 EVE 1 WAT 1
- 8 EVE 0 WAT 2
- 9 EVE 0 WAT 1
- 10 EVE 0 WAT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 31%, 37% end level, Watford win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 1.9% |
| Everton by 2 | 7.0% |
| Everton by 1 | 21.9% |
| Draw | 37.2% |
| Watford by 1 | 22.7% |
| Watford by 2 | 7.2% |
| Watford by 3+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 11 | 2 | 0.78 | +1.22 |
 Watford | 11 | 2 | 0.62 | +1.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Miguel Arturo Layún Prado scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 75' | Ross Barkley scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 82' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 85' | Arouna Koné scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% EVE |
| 2 | 12' | Miguel Arturo Layún Prado scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +22% WAT |
| 3 | 49' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% WAT |
| 4 | 67' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% WAT |
| 5 | 75' | Ross Barkley scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +41% EVE |
| 6 | 76' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EVE |
| 7 | 82' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +40% WAT |
| 8 | 85' | Arouna Koné scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +44% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 36% · draw 37% · Watford 27%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 31% · draw 37% · Watford 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 1 matches, 2015-16 · Everton · Watford
More from matchday 1, 2015-16
- Man United 1–0 Tottenham Aug 8, 2015 · replay 53% for Man United
- Leicester 4–2 Sunderland Aug 8, 2015 · replay 85% for Leicester
- Norwich 1–3 Crystal Palace Aug 8, 2015 · replay 68% for Crystal Palace
- Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa Aug 8, 2015 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Chelsea 2–2 Swansea Aug 8, 2015 · drawn; replay 17% draws
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- Stoke 0–1 Liverpool Aug 9, 2015 · replay 44% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–2 West Ham Aug 9, 2015 · replay 37% for West Ham
- West Brom 0–3 Man City Aug 10, 2015 · replay 88% for Man City